Dry Photoelectric: LED market segment leading public and private recruitment

LED (Light Emitted Diode, a solid-state light-emitting device that uses the characteristics of semiconductor materials to convert electrical energy into light energy) has been a popular concept in the market in recent years. The most impressive thing for investors is Sanan Optoelectronics (600703). .SH).

From the current market situation, another company in the LED industry is doing a good job, and the limelight is even stronger than Sanan Optoelectronics.

It is understood that since the company's listing in August, the stock price trend has been quite down. It once dropped to a low of 68.80 yuan, and once stood at a high of 97.35 yuan. As of November 12, the company's share price closed at 89.29 yuan, nearly double the issue price.

In addition to a lot of public funds optimistic about the company, private equity is a "love" for dry photo. According to the third quarter data, there are more than 4 private placements in the stock. Among them, Shibo’s China Resources SZI-Shangya Phase 2 is the sixth largest tradable shareholder of the company.

"The company is a good company. From the perspective of profitability, it even has an advantage over Sanan Optoelectronics. The company's previous valuation was low, but after a continuous rise, it seems that the price is not low." The company's brokerage researcher said.

Optimistic performance in the fourth quarter

"According to our research, the company's orders in the fourth quarter are full, and the products are still in short supply, so it is expected that the performance in the fourth quarter will be very good." The researcher said.

It is understood that Ganzhao Optoelectronics is a leading enterprise in the manufacture of domestic quaternary red-yellow LED chips and GaAS (gallium arsenide) photovoltaic chips. At present, the company's high-brightness quaternary LED chips are mainly red and yellow, and its packaged products have been widely used in backlights, night scene projects and many other fields.

Although Ganzhao Optoelectronics and Sanan Optoelectronics and Silan Micro (600460.SH) belong to the same industry, the products produced by the three companies are still different. Among them, Silan Micro is mainly blue-green light products, dry-light photoelectric mainly focuses on red-yellow light, while Sanan Optoelectronics product chain covers full-color system, but still dominates with yellow-green light.

He Zaihua, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting, said in an interview with the reporter of the First Financial Daily, "Finance Business": "The yellow LED chip products produced by the company are just staggered with blue and green light, which are low-end products, price and technology. More obvious advantage."

However, he also said that the current products on the market are the most advantageous of Taiwanese companies. The company is still difficult to compete with overseas manufacturers, and the quality of some products needs to be further improved.

Huachuang Securities believes that from the comparison of the company's main red-yellow LED chip manufacturers and mainland LED chip manufacturers' single-cylinder chip capacity, the company has basically reached the level of Taiwan's leading LED chip manufacturers, while in the mainland. Leading in the comparison of LED chip manufacturers.

It is understood that LED chips are not only used in lamps, but also widely used in traffic lights, mobile phones, notebook computer background light sources and other fields. In the past ten years, the global LED market has grown at a compound annual growth rate of more than 20%, and the high-brightness LED market has grown more rapidly.

The market situation in short supply has made Ganzhao Optoelectronics a “high-quality stock” in the GEM. The third quarter report showed that the company achieved operating income of 208 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 68.06%, and a net profit of 95 million yuan, an increase of 87.36%. In addition, the company expects net profit for 2010 to increase by 55% to 70%.

"The reason why the company is optimistic, in addition to the market is good, but also because the capacity bottleneck problem that previously restricted the company's development will be resolved." The brokerage researcher said.

In fact, the company's high-brightness quaternary red and yellow LED chip products have only met 50% of downstream core customers due to capacity constraints. This problem will be solved with the expansion of capacity.

It is understood that the company's project in Yangzhou is progressing smoothly. At present, there are 3 MOCVD (metal organic chemical vapor deposition, which is the main epitaxial method for producing super bright LED). It is expected to have sufficient capacity in the fourth quarter. The equipment has arrived and will be ready for use before the end of the year.

Huachuang Securities expects that by the end of 2011, the company will have 29 MOCVD epitaxial equipments in Yangzhou and Xiamen. The LED chip production capacity will be expanded to about 7 times at the end of 2009, and the solar epitaxial wafer production capacity will be expanded to twice that of 2009.

Everbright Securities analyst Zhao Lei said in his research report released on November 10 that the company's capacity bottleneck is gradually easing, and will gradually bring results and maintain forecasts of the company's financial data. Because the company has high growth, it gives its 2011 earnings of 45 times the price-earnings ratio, corresponding to a target price of 104.60 yuan.

Leading industry in profitability

Also a leading company in LED chip manufacturing, Ganzhao Optoelectronics and Sanan Optoelectronics are comparable. The reporter learned that from the perspective of industrial chain layout, Sanan Optoelectronics is even better, but from the perspective of profitability, Ganzhao Optoelectronics seems to have an advantage.

According to public information, whether the gross profit margin of Sanan Optoelectronics or Ganzhao Optoelectronics exceeds 45%, such profit margins are commendable in the manufacturing industry. Among them, the gross profit margin of Ganzhao Optoelectronics in the third quarter of this year was as high as 62.34%, while the gross profit margin of Sanan Optoelectronics was 45.92%.

In addition to gross profit margin, from another point of judging profitability - ROE (equity yield), the ROE of dry photo photoelectric is also significantly higher than Sanan Optoelectronics. In the third quarter, the ROE of Sanan Optoelectronics was 5.87%, while the ROE of Ganzhao Optoelectronics was as high as 23.1%.

"This shows that the utilization level of dry photo-electricity assets is significantly higher than that of Sanan Optoelectronics, and its cost control capability is stronger. It is a more competitive investment target," said Chen Liang, a researcher at Huabao Securities.

Zhao Lei believes that Ganzhao Optoelectronics is expected to maintain a gross profit margin of nearly 60% in the next two to three quarters. However, it is not easy to maintain such a high gross profit margin in the next two to three years. The company may face the risk of falling gross profit margin. Especially considering that the company will have greater depreciation costs as new equipment is put into use.

In addition, from the sales revenue of each MOCVD chip, the company has great advantages in the utilization of single furnace equipment, much higher than Sanan Optoelectronics and Silan Micro.

Public and private listings are highly valued

"Considering that Ganzhao Optoelectronics and Sanan Optoelectronics are both leading LED chip companies, the industry status is similar, and Ganzhao Optoelectronics' recent performance growth trend is stronger, and its profitability is better, it should enjoy no less than Sanan Optoelectronics' valuation. Chen Liang believes.

It is understood that the valuation of Ganzhao Optoelectronics was indeed lower than that of Sanan Optoelectronics. However, due to the recent strong performance of dry-lighting optoelectronics and Sanan Optoelectronics' performance is flat, the situation has reversed.

As of November 12, Sanan Optoelectronics' dynamic P/E ratio was 74.62 times, while Ganzhao Optoelectronics' dynamic P/E ratio reached 82.77 times, and it seems to have enjoyed the high valuation it deserves.

According to the third quarter data, as of September 30, a total of 32 major institutions held dry photo and optoelectronics, including 18 funds, 1 brokerage firm, 3 trust companies, and 7 reasonable wealth collections. The total number of positions was 4.16 million shares, accounting for circulation A. The stock was 17.61%.

Among them, Huaan Strategy Preferred Fund holds 542,700 shares, accounting for 1.84% of the tradable share capital, which is the company's largest tradable shareholder, while Desheng Advantage Equity Fund holds 250,000 shares, accounting for 0.85% of the tradable share capital. As the company's fifth largest tradable shareholder.

In addition, the long-term good-looking private equity of the emerging industry, Shibo's China Resources SZI-Shangya 2 is even more than a "heavy gold" to buy Ganzhao Optoelectronics, and ranked the company's sixth largest shareholder. The reporter learned that it is rare for private equity funds to “break into” the top ten tradable shareholders of listed companies.

"After a round of upswing, the risk of intervening in the current photo-electricity is not small, and can be considered after the price correction." The above-mentioned brokerage researcher believes.

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