In the LCD TV market, the buying momentum in the second half of 2010 turned weak, and the Korean brand manufacturers took the lead in launching the inventory adjustment strategy, which led to a decline in 2010, which affected the LED industry and lost its momentum. However, with the rebound of the new model of LED TV, some packaging factories have taken the lead in reflecting the signs of operational recovery from the end of 2010, and have got rid of the dilemma. In 2011, under the dual engine of LED backlight heating and LED lighting heating, LED can be Looking forward to regaining the momentum of strong light, but behind the prospects, the LED industry is still choppy and turbulent in 2011.
Although LED TV did not reach the high standard of 30% penetration rate as expected in 2010, it is estimated that only 20% of the year, LED LCD monitors are only about 18~20%, but the price difference between LED TV and CCFL TV panel is from Since the third quarter of 2010, the price has been greatly reduced. For example, the 42-inch panel spread has been reduced from US$140 to US$90. It is expected that LED TV will unload the aristocratic aura in 2011, from high-end to low-end market. It is expected that the market penetration rate will increase to 50%, and the LED supply chain will start to grow in volume from the end of the first quarter, bringing back the opportunity for the industrial boom and becoming the focus of the LED industry's 2011 operation support.
In addition, LED lighting will gradually show that the market is in a good position. After the first LED light bulb market in Japan, the LED lighting penetration rate in 2011 is expected to challenge the key threshold of 10%, with the implementation of energy-saving policies such as the ban on incandescent lamps. And LED mass production luminous efficiency reaches 100lm / W level, LED lighting market will be ready, only owe the wind, depending on the unit cost. Fortunately, cost competitiveness is a long-standing advantage of Taiwan's electronics industry. However, short-term supply and demand adjustment will be an unavoidable pain before the market is about to enter a major outbreak.
It is estimated that due to the off-season effect and the reduction in capacity utilization, in the fourth quarter of 2010, regardless of the large-size backlight or lighting, the price of LEDs from die to package has continued to fall, and the price of LED backlights is about 10%. Lighting is 10% to 15% after the fourth quarter, and there is still more than 10% decline in the first quarter of 2011. Recently, the US-listed SemiLEDS pointed out that it was hit by the price decline and profited in the first quarter of 2011. It will drop sharply, causing the stock price to plummet on the day. The leading LED factory Cree also had a worse-than-expected result, which led to a 15% drop in share price after the market, indicating that LED lighting demand is rising, but the industry competition and challenges are still difficult.
The 2011 LED unit price decline is not only necessary to stimulate the demand of new markets, regional competition is intensifying and the industry's production capacity is exploding. It is a variable that cannot be ignored. It is reported that the installation volume of MOCVD machines in mainland China reached 330 units in 2010. In 2011, it saw 700 to 800 units. Although the progress of the purchase of the mainland machine has shown signs of “big wind and small rainâ€, the target number is 20% off. The scale of production capacity after the production is enough to disrupt the entire industrial order. The doubts about oversupply and the market restructuring brought about by low-price competition are expected to appear in the second half of the year.
As for Taiwan's important competitors: the Korean LED factory, with the support of the group, the LED output value may surpass Taiwan for the first time in 2010. Although the recent capacity expansion progress has slowed down, the industry rumors that the LED substrate technology developed by Samsung LED has reached 150lm/ The luminous efficiency of W, once officially mass-produced, will cause huge price cuts on Taiwanese plants with sapphire substrates as the main technology.
Although the growth potential of LED's two major application markets is promising, LED prospects are still coexisting with good and bad views. After enjoying the high gross profit and profit in 2010, how to maintain high performance in 2011 will be the focus of market attention. However, after all, the LED industry has been regarded as the star of tomorrow for many years, but it has been growing all the way in the storm. Because there is no sweet fruit that has fallen from the sky, Taiwan will actively face the industrial transformation in 2011. The key moment of the upgrade.
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