Since the beginning of this year, due to the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, coupled with Germany, Italy, Spain and Other countries have reduced subsidies for solar energy, the demand for photovoltaics in European countries has shrunk dramatically. Although the photovoltaic market in China and the United States has a certain growth driven by policies, it is difficult to fill the gap left by the decline in market demand. The decrease in terminal demand led to a new round of lower prices for polysilicon, and China's polysilicon companies began a new round of reshuffle.
Polysilicon prices have fallen again in recent years, polysilicon prices fluctuate in recent years, before 2004 to 30 US dollars / kg, showing an explosive rise after 2004, by 2007, 2008, polysilicon had reached 450 US dollars / kg, by the end of 2008, drop It was US$100/kg, and then slowly declined. By the end of 2009, the price of polysilicon had dropped to around US$50/kg. In 2010, the price of polysilicon began a new round of rise and rose to the level of 100 US dollars/kg. However, in April this year, it began a new round of decline. During this period, it experienced two rounds of rapid decline, dropping from 80 US dollars/kg in May. At 55 U.S. dollars per kilogram, it has fallen to about 35 U.S. dollars per kilogram in the most recent month. Industry experts predict that polysilicon prices will decline this year, but the rate will not be too great.
The drop in polysilicon prices has a great impact on China's polysilicon companies. Currently, the production cost of polysilicon in the international first-line companies is between US$22 and US$32/kg, and the production cost of domestic large-scale enterprises, especially those with annual output exceeding 5,000 tons, is between US$22 and US$35. Between / kg, the cost of SMEs is between $ 40 and $ 45 / kg, or even higher. This means that polysilicon prices fell to 35 US dollars / kg, the first-line companies are still profitable, and SMEs are bound to be eliminated. Yan Dazhou, deputy general manager of Luoyang China Silicon High-tech Co., Ltd. and director of the National Engineering Laboratory of polysilicon material preparation technology, told China Electronics News that there are currently about 40 polysilicon manufacturers in China. If the price of polysilicon drops to 35 U.S. dollars per kilogram, There may be only five or six remaining survivors. It is understood that there are many small-tonnage enterprises in China, and the current spot price is already lower than the long-single price of 50 US dollars. The cost is upside down. Most companies suffer losses and have already cut production in the second half of the year.
However, polysilicon price fluctuations have little impact on the CEOs of executive long-term orders, such as China’s GCL, which is said to be the “grand four†of global polysilicon, US HEMOLOCK, Germany’s WAKER, and South Korea’s OCI, which can control costs between US$20 and US$30. Each supplier's supply will exceed 30,000 tons this year, and each year's production capacity will be more than 60,000 tons.
According to Lu Jinbiao, deputy general manager of Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Technology Development Co., Ltd., polysilicon prices have fluctuated from more than 400 US dollars per kilogram to more than 40 U.S. dollars since 2008, mainly concentrated in more than 10 percent of spot transactions and more than 80 percent of Polysilicon is a long-sold transaction between major manufacturers at prices of 80 to 50 US dollars per kilogram. From the highs in the second quarter of 2008 to the lows in the third quarter of 2009, it returned to 60 U.S. dollars per kilogram in 2010 and returned to the low of 50 U.S. dollars per kilogram in the second quarter of 2011.
An industry executive who did not want to be named revealed that the most fundamental reason for the fluctuation of polysilicon price is a phased surplus. The phase surplus is mainly caused by the following three reasons: the European debt crisis; the current cost of photovoltaic power generation is lower than that of conventional energy. High, the market is difficult to quickly expand capacity; the release of polysilicon companies expansion capacity in previous years. He said that in the face of price cuts, the best way for polysilicon companies to respond is to reach a consensus with downstream competitive battery module manufacturers to form a division of labor in the industrial chain, to prevent prices in advance, and to avoid risks.
Helping the PV industry achieve low cost In the long run, the role of photovoltaic power generation in replacing conventional energy sources will become increasingly apparent as the cost of power generation decreases. The decrease in polysilicon prices is a good thing for photovoltaic applications. Judging from the current level of polysilicon prices, Europe and Japan have already achieved parity.
At present, the domestic polysilicon enterprises are divided into three grades. The first tier is represented by Jiangsu Zhongneng, a subsidiary of GCL-Poly. The cost is comparable to that of a world-class polysilicon company, which is about 20 US dollars/kilogram. This round of polysilicon prices has fallen and companies have been affected. The damage just makes the high expectations of investors impossible to achieve, but it will not be a loss. Closely following the Luoyang Silicon, LDK, Daquan, CSG and other companies can reach 30 US dollars / kg, during this round of decline, can achieve a break-even. The remaining relatively small companies or enterprises with large design scales but failing to reach production cost more than US$40 to US$50/kg, which will undoubtedly cause losses. If this round of decline lasts for a long time, the company’s business is facing great difficult.
Yan Daya said that the drop in polysilicon prices will help promote the low-cost photovoltaic industry and accelerate the use of photovoltaic power generation in the domestic market. The price of photovoltaic power plant components recently installed for bidding reached US$1 to US$1.25/Wp, and the cost of power generation in areas with sufficient sunlight in the western part of the country was lower than RMB 0.8/kWh. According to the national benchmark price, the investment can be recovered from 6.5 to 8.5 years.
In the future, the competition pattern of polysilicon will be the competition among the few large-scale enterprises in the world. In the short term, the total supply of the market will increase steadily, but the supply will be further concentrated in the high-tech and low-cost factories, forming a strong constant. Strong competitive situation. From the price point of view, according to the changes in the market, although there has been a decline, but with the arrival of the era of photovoltaic generation price in two or three years, the price of polysilicon will gradually stabilize, not because of the explosive growth of photovoltaic power caused by the substantial growth of raw materials fluctuation.
Lu Jinbiao said that price fluctuations have always been a barometer for changes in industry development and market supply and demand. Since the supply of polysilicon raw materials is mainly aimed at high-tech, large-scale, low-cost large-scale plants, stabilizing low-cost raw material supplies will effectively promote photovoltaics. The acceleration of the decline in the cost of power generation has accelerated the development of the global photovoltaic industry.
The improved Siemens method still dominates At present, the effective way for polysilicon enterprises to reduce costs is to increase technology, improve technology, increase scale, strengthen management, improve details, reduce power consumption, reduce material consumption, and comprehensively recycle by-products produced from polysilicon production.
Yan Daya said that after years of hard work, the level of technology has continued to increase. In 2010, China’s polysilicon production exceeded 40,000 tons, accounting for 1/4 of the world’s total production. The world’s top 10 manufacturers occupied 4 seats in China, achieving intensive and Large-scale production has become one of the largest polysilicon manufacturing countries in the world. The advanced domestic enterprises have reached the international advanced level, and some have reached the leading level. Among them, polysilicon production reduction power consumption has been reduced to 50kWh/kg ~ 80kWh/kg, the best index of individual test furnace is less than 50kWh/kg, integrated power consumption reaches 120kWh/kg ~ 150kWh/kg (national access conditions 200kWh/kg] The best indicator is 120kWh/kg or less, and this mainstream process is still undergoing continuous improvement.
In recent years, through the comparison of safety production, environmental protection, energy conservation, large-scale, high-quality and good benefits, the improved Siemens process with low-temperature hydrogenation or chlorine-hydrogen recovery by-products has become the mainstream process. With the continuous improvement and improvement of the improved Siemens process, the competitiveness will be further strengthened. In comparison, other production processes are difficult to counterbalance.
Lu Jinbiao said that GCL has transformed the improved Siemens method into a unique “GCL method†to form a polysilicon-scale enterprise with a single line exceeding 10,000 tons and a single base with a capacity exceeding 60,000 tons. 100% of all by-products in the production process are digested, and the system is closed. Through the large-scale application of process optimization and energy saving technologies, the overall energy consumption of polysilicon production is reduced to 70 to 80 kWh, and polysilicon production costs to 20 US$. /kg.
The production process outside the modified Siemens process can still be used as a reserve, but in the short term, it is difficult to compare the technology maturity and cost reduction potential with the improved Siemens method. There is still much room for improvement based on the improved Siemens method.
GCL-Poly will supply more than 30,000 tons of silicon for solar energy users this year for the first time, making it the largest supplier of photovoltaic raw materials for the “four diamondsâ€. “First of all, we are taking advantage of the world’s lowest production cost to continue to provide high-quality, stable low-cost profitable PV core customers; secondly, we need to further enhance our technological level and produce large quantities of polysilicon supply markets with lower production costs. Photovoltaic power generation costs will decline at a faster rate.†Lu Jinbiao said that they will also use the most technological transformation of the largest wafer processing production base to upgrade and introduce more "individual crystals" with more than 18.5% conversion efficiency of ingot products. And follow-up products, and battery production companies strong combination, work together to improve quality and reduce costs. “We also need to adjust the product structure to provide a portion of semiconductor-grade polysilicon to provide a high-quality raw material supply for the semiconductor user market,†he stressed.
Polysilicon prices have fallen again in recent years, polysilicon prices fluctuate in recent years, before 2004 to 30 US dollars / kg, showing an explosive rise after 2004, by 2007, 2008, polysilicon had reached 450 US dollars / kg, by the end of 2008, drop It was US$100/kg, and then slowly declined. By the end of 2009, the price of polysilicon had dropped to around US$50/kg. In 2010, the price of polysilicon began a new round of rise and rose to the level of 100 US dollars/kg. However, in April this year, it began a new round of decline. During this period, it experienced two rounds of rapid decline, dropping from 80 US dollars/kg in May. At 55 U.S. dollars per kilogram, it has fallen to about 35 U.S. dollars per kilogram in the most recent month. Industry experts predict that polysilicon prices will decline this year, but the rate will not be too great.
The drop in polysilicon prices has a great impact on China's polysilicon companies. Currently, the production cost of polysilicon in the international first-line companies is between US$22 and US$32/kg, and the production cost of domestic large-scale enterprises, especially those with annual output exceeding 5,000 tons, is between US$22 and US$35. Between / kg, the cost of SMEs is between $ 40 and $ 45 / kg, or even higher. This means that polysilicon prices fell to 35 US dollars / kg, the first-line companies are still profitable, and SMEs are bound to be eliminated. Yan Dazhou, deputy general manager of Luoyang China Silicon High-tech Co., Ltd. and director of the National Engineering Laboratory of polysilicon material preparation technology, told China Electronics News that there are currently about 40 polysilicon manufacturers in China. If the price of polysilicon drops to 35 U.S. dollars per kilogram, There may be only five or six remaining survivors. It is understood that there are many small-tonnage enterprises in China, and the current spot price is already lower than the long-single price of 50 US dollars. The cost is upside down. Most companies suffer losses and have already cut production in the second half of the year.
However, polysilicon price fluctuations have little impact on the CEOs of executive long-term orders, such as China’s GCL, which is said to be the “grand four†of global polysilicon, US HEMOLOCK, Germany’s WAKER, and South Korea’s OCI, which can control costs between US$20 and US$30. Each supplier's supply will exceed 30,000 tons this year, and each year's production capacity will be more than 60,000 tons.
According to Lu Jinbiao, deputy general manager of Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon Technology Development Co., Ltd., polysilicon prices have fluctuated from more than 400 US dollars per kilogram to more than 40 U.S. dollars since 2008, mainly concentrated in more than 10 percent of spot transactions and more than 80 percent of Polysilicon is a long-sold transaction between major manufacturers at prices of 80 to 50 US dollars per kilogram. From the highs in the second quarter of 2008 to the lows in the third quarter of 2009, it returned to 60 U.S. dollars per kilogram in 2010 and returned to the low of 50 U.S. dollars per kilogram in the second quarter of 2011.
An industry executive who did not want to be named revealed that the most fundamental reason for the fluctuation of polysilicon price is a phased surplus. The phase surplus is mainly caused by the following three reasons: the European debt crisis; the current cost of photovoltaic power generation is lower than that of conventional energy. High, the market is difficult to quickly expand capacity; the release of polysilicon companies expansion capacity in previous years. He said that in the face of price cuts, the best way for polysilicon companies to respond is to reach a consensus with downstream competitive battery module manufacturers to form a division of labor in the industrial chain, to prevent prices in advance, and to avoid risks.
Helping the PV industry achieve low cost In the long run, the role of photovoltaic power generation in replacing conventional energy sources will become increasingly apparent as the cost of power generation decreases. The decrease in polysilicon prices is a good thing for photovoltaic applications. Judging from the current level of polysilicon prices, Europe and Japan have already achieved parity.
At present, the domestic polysilicon enterprises are divided into three grades. The first tier is represented by Jiangsu Zhongneng, a subsidiary of GCL-Poly. The cost is comparable to that of a world-class polysilicon company, which is about 20 US dollars/kilogram. This round of polysilicon prices has fallen and companies have been affected. The damage just makes the high expectations of investors impossible to achieve, but it will not be a loss. Closely following the Luoyang Silicon, LDK, Daquan, CSG and other companies can reach 30 US dollars / kg, during this round of decline, can achieve a break-even. The remaining relatively small companies or enterprises with large design scales but failing to reach production cost more than US$40 to US$50/kg, which will undoubtedly cause losses. If this round of decline lasts for a long time, the company’s business is facing great difficult.
Yan Daya said that the drop in polysilicon prices will help promote the low-cost photovoltaic industry and accelerate the use of photovoltaic power generation in the domestic market. The price of photovoltaic power plant components recently installed for bidding reached US$1 to US$1.25/Wp, and the cost of power generation in areas with sufficient sunlight in the western part of the country was lower than RMB 0.8/kWh. According to the national benchmark price, the investment can be recovered from 6.5 to 8.5 years.
In the future, the competition pattern of polysilicon will be the competition among the few large-scale enterprises in the world. In the short term, the total supply of the market will increase steadily, but the supply will be further concentrated in the high-tech and low-cost factories, forming a strong constant. Strong competitive situation. From the price point of view, according to the changes in the market, although there has been a decline, but with the arrival of the era of photovoltaic generation price in two or three years, the price of polysilicon will gradually stabilize, not because of the explosive growth of photovoltaic power caused by the substantial growth of raw materials fluctuation.
Lu Jinbiao said that price fluctuations have always been a barometer for changes in industry development and market supply and demand. Since the supply of polysilicon raw materials is mainly aimed at high-tech, large-scale, low-cost large-scale plants, stabilizing low-cost raw material supplies will effectively promote photovoltaics. The acceleration of the decline in the cost of power generation has accelerated the development of the global photovoltaic industry.
The improved Siemens method still dominates At present, the effective way for polysilicon enterprises to reduce costs is to increase technology, improve technology, increase scale, strengthen management, improve details, reduce power consumption, reduce material consumption, and comprehensively recycle by-products produced from polysilicon production.
Yan Daya said that after years of hard work, the level of technology has continued to increase. In 2010, China’s polysilicon production exceeded 40,000 tons, accounting for 1/4 of the world’s total production. The world’s top 10 manufacturers occupied 4 seats in China, achieving intensive and Large-scale production has become one of the largest polysilicon manufacturing countries in the world. The advanced domestic enterprises have reached the international advanced level, and some have reached the leading level. Among them, polysilicon production reduction power consumption has been reduced to 50kWh/kg ~ 80kWh/kg, the best index of individual test furnace is less than 50kWh/kg, integrated power consumption reaches 120kWh/kg ~ 150kWh/kg (national access conditions 200kWh/kg] The best indicator is 120kWh/kg or less, and this mainstream process is still undergoing continuous improvement.
In recent years, through the comparison of safety production, environmental protection, energy conservation, large-scale, high-quality and good benefits, the improved Siemens process with low-temperature hydrogenation or chlorine-hydrogen recovery by-products has become the mainstream process. With the continuous improvement and improvement of the improved Siemens process, the competitiveness will be further strengthened. In comparison, other production processes are difficult to counterbalance.
Lu Jinbiao said that GCL has transformed the improved Siemens method into a unique “GCL method†to form a polysilicon-scale enterprise with a single line exceeding 10,000 tons and a single base with a capacity exceeding 60,000 tons. 100% of all by-products in the production process are digested, and the system is closed. Through the large-scale application of process optimization and energy saving technologies, the overall energy consumption of polysilicon production is reduced to 70 to 80 kWh, and polysilicon production costs to 20 US$. /kg.
The production process outside the modified Siemens process can still be used as a reserve, but in the short term, it is difficult to compare the technology maturity and cost reduction potential with the improved Siemens method. There is still much room for improvement based on the improved Siemens method.
GCL-Poly will supply more than 30,000 tons of silicon for solar energy users this year for the first time, making it the largest supplier of photovoltaic raw materials for the “four diamondsâ€. “First of all, we are taking advantage of the world’s lowest production cost to continue to provide high-quality, stable low-cost profitable PV core customers; secondly, we need to further enhance our technological level and produce large quantities of polysilicon supply markets with lower production costs. Photovoltaic power generation costs will decline at a faster rate.†Lu Jinbiao said that they will also use the most technological transformation of the largest wafer processing production base to upgrade and introduce more "individual crystals" with more than 18.5% conversion efficiency of ingot products. And follow-up products, and battery production companies strong combination, work together to improve quality and reduce costs. “We also need to adjust the product structure to provide a portion of semiconductor-grade polysilicon to provide a high-quality raw material supply for the semiconductor user market,†he stressed.
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