At the summit of China’s new energy strategy executives held on December 19, the “overcapacity†of polysilicon in China became the focus of debate in the industry. Experts pointed out that China's polysilicon import ratio has exceeded its own production in 2010. If it continues to develop according to the current situation, China's polysilicon production will not be able to meet the industry's development demand within five years. Polysilicon “overcapacity†has become a “past one.†".
The debate over “overcapacity†Zhou Fengqi, former director of the National Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that photovoltaic power generation is the most important development direction of renewable energy in China in the future. However, because some departments think that the upstream polysilicon production capacity is excess, and take some control measures, in fact, is aimed at the future excess capacity, resulting in the current polysilicon production capacity has lagged behind.
The most sensitive to this change is the small and medium-sized photovoltaic companies with downstream integrated services.
An executive of the Beijing Jingyi Group told this newspaper that due to the current lack of polysilicon production capacity, the enterprises in the domestic solar energy industry chain have shown a morbid state of “slimming downâ€. That is, the profit rate of enterprises that control the upstream raw materials is high, while the profit to the downstream integrators is significantly reduced. "Since polysilicon companies make advance payments to companies that do silicon wafers, and wafer companies make prepayments to downstream integrated companies, the profits are getting less and less," the source told reporters. "Now Yingli, Zhongneng and other powerful companies are all integrating the entire industry chain, which is also the direction of our future efforts."
Zhao Yuwen, director of the Photovoltaic Branch of the China Renewable Energy Society, made it clear that there has never been a surplus of polysilicon in China and it has been imported. According to the current consumption level, China needs about 56,000 tons of polysilicon a year, but China currently produces about 38,000 tons of polysilicon, while it needs to import 40,000 tons. In general, 40% of raw materials are not enough.
Judging from the market performance, the current domestic polysilicon price is between 70 and 80 US dollars and the cost is only less than 30 US dollars; in 2007, even if the high price of 300 US dollars can be sold, the cost will remain unchanged. The reason for such high profits is entirely due to the shortage of supply. Therefore, the industry should seek to reduce the cost of downstream photovoltaic power generation as soon as possible. Zhao Yuwen stated that the price of polysilicon that meets the ideal cost of the industry should be around US$15 kilograms, and production must be “surplus†to reduce costs.
Start the domestic market to respond to "two out"
Since 2007, China has become the largest producer of solar cells in the world. In 2010, global solar cell output was 16 GW, while China's production was more than 8 GW, but the relevant departments lacked certainty about the development of the upstream polysilicon industry. In this regard, the industry believes that: the relevant departments are worried about the high energy consumption of the photovoltaic industry upstream. The direct cause of this concern lies in the unfavorable state of China's photovoltaic industry, which is “outside and in the middleâ€.
Zhou Fengqi believes that at present, the growth of polysilicon production capacity in China has failed to catch up with the growth of photovoltaic cell production capacity and can only be imported from abroad. The Chinese photovoltaic cell production industry has relied on the international market, mainly the European market for survival. Today, the upstream of the industrial chain also depends on the import of raw materials from abroad. It has become a typical “two ends out in the middleâ€, that is, the manufacturing link is used in China. Links abroad; energy consumption in the country, saving abroad.
From the perspective of the “full industry chainâ€, the problem of large energy consumption in the photovoltaic industry is actually not fully taken into account, because the energy consumed by the upstream can be compensated for the actual energy-saving effect of the use of the link, but the Chinese PV industry is “being out of the middle and being in the middleâ€. "Inside", it is urgent to start the domestic photovoltaic consumer market.
Europe surpassed Japan in 2004 to become the world's largest photovoltaic market, and has also become China's most important export market for photovoltaic companies. However, the situation in China is not optimistic. In 2009, the global PV market share accounted for 80.1% in Europe, 7% in North America, and only 2% in China. The long-term "stuck" local market still prevents Chinese companies from reliving abroad.
The debate over “overcapacity†Zhou Fengqi, former director of the National Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that photovoltaic power generation is the most important development direction of renewable energy in China in the future. However, because some departments think that the upstream polysilicon production capacity is excess, and take some control measures, in fact, is aimed at the future excess capacity, resulting in the current polysilicon production capacity has lagged behind.
The most sensitive to this change is the small and medium-sized photovoltaic companies with downstream integrated services.
An executive of the Beijing Jingyi Group told this newspaper that due to the current lack of polysilicon production capacity, the enterprises in the domestic solar energy industry chain have shown a morbid state of “slimming downâ€. That is, the profit rate of enterprises that control the upstream raw materials is high, while the profit to the downstream integrators is significantly reduced. "Since polysilicon companies make advance payments to companies that do silicon wafers, and wafer companies make prepayments to downstream integrated companies, the profits are getting less and less," the source told reporters. "Now Yingli, Zhongneng and other powerful companies are all integrating the entire industry chain, which is also the direction of our future efforts."
Zhao Yuwen, director of the Photovoltaic Branch of the China Renewable Energy Society, made it clear that there has never been a surplus of polysilicon in China and it has been imported. According to the current consumption level, China needs about 56,000 tons of polysilicon a year, but China currently produces about 38,000 tons of polysilicon, while it needs to import 40,000 tons. In general, 40% of raw materials are not enough.
Judging from the market performance, the current domestic polysilicon price is between 70 and 80 US dollars and the cost is only less than 30 US dollars; in 2007, even if the high price of 300 US dollars can be sold, the cost will remain unchanged. The reason for such high profits is entirely due to the shortage of supply. Therefore, the industry should seek to reduce the cost of downstream photovoltaic power generation as soon as possible. Zhao Yuwen stated that the price of polysilicon that meets the ideal cost of the industry should be around US$15 kilograms, and production must be “surplus†to reduce costs.
Start the domestic market to respond to "two out"
Since 2007, China has become the largest producer of solar cells in the world. In 2010, global solar cell output was 16 GW, while China's production was more than 8 GW, but the relevant departments lacked certainty about the development of the upstream polysilicon industry. In this regard, the industry believes that: the relevant departments are worried about the high energy consumption of the photovoltaic industry upstream. The direct cause of this concern lies in the unfavorable state of China's photovoltaic industry, which is “outside and in the middleâ€.
Zhou Fengqi believes that at present, the growth of polysilicon production capacity in China has failed to catch up with the growth of photovoltaic cell production capacity and can only be imported from abroad. The Chinese photovoltaic cell production industry has relied on the international market, mainly the European market for survival. Today, the upstream of the industrial chain also depends on the import of raw materials from abroad. It has become a typical “two ends out in the middleâ€, that is, the manufacturing link is used in China. Links abroad; energy consumption in the country, saving abroad.
From the perspective of the “full industry chainâ€, the problem of large energy consumption in the photovoltaic industry is actually not fully taken into account, because the energy consumed by the upstream can be compensated for the actual energy-saving effect of the use of the link, but the Chinese PV industry is “being out of the middle and being in the middleâ€. "Inside", it is urgent to start the domestic photovoltaic consumer market.
Europe surpassed Japan in 2004 to become the world's largest photovoltaic market, and has also become China's most important export market for photovoltaic companies. However, the situation in China is not optimistic. In 2009, the global PV market share accounted for 80.1% in Europe, 7% in North America, and only 2% in China. The long-term "stuck" local market still prevents Chinese companies from reliving abroad.
Keysun Technology Limited , http://www.powersupplychina.com