Guangfa **: Heavy copper fluctuations, short-term operation

Overnight LME copper finished lower and closed at 7540 U.S. dollars, which was mainly affected by the cancellation of the European finance ministers’ meeting. Eurozone officials revealed that the second summit on Wednesday will not create tough measures to help the region weather the debt crisis. The market's optimism about the resolution of the European debt crisis has been affected. From the perspective of positions, there is still no shrinkage, indicating that interest in funds is still there. The short-term lightening of Shanghai copper's exit allowed the price to be closed at a 7% daily limit. A shares continued to cooperate and the spot premium began to narrow.

[Market Analysis]

The current mainstream view of the market is that EU leaders will introduce specific measures to curb the debt crisis at the summit on Wednesday, including suggestions for greater losses of holders of Greek government bonds represented by the European banking industry, and the expansion of the European Stability Fund. (EFSF) Permissions Measures. However, some officials revealed that it may not introduce tough measures because it is difficult to quantify the expansion of the EFSF, and the banking industry's losses caused by the Greek debt crisis are still very large. An EU spokesman said earlier on Tuesday that the meeting of the European Union finance ministers originally scheduled for Wednesday had been cancelled and that the EU leaders’ summit would be held as usual. This gave rise to optimism in the market.

Without US economic data, the US consumer confidence index fell to 39.8 in October, the lowest since the end of March 2009, and the US composite manufacturing index in October was negative, which was the same as in September. U.S. President Barack Obama announced on Oct. 24 that the new policy of the housing market in Nevada will reduce or eliminate mortgages. According to Reuters, the Obama administration will revise the 2009 Home Loan Affordable Refinance Plan (HARP) to allow mortgage borrowers currently under the guarantee of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to lower interest rates again. Financing. But the helper needs to have a good schedule of repayments. The Associated Press reported that the government will also reduce the loan fees charged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and will exempt the mortgage lenders who refinance short-term loans. This news may stimulate the consumption and investment of the U.S. citizens. It has a certain beneficial effect on the U.S. economy, especially the stimulation of real estate investment.

[spot market]

Asian Metals News, spot market copper prices rose 2200 yuan / ton to 56400-56700 yuan / ton, spot premium from yesterday's 200-400 yuan / ton narrowed to 0-250 yuan / ton. Copper prices continued to rise, and some consumers began to replenish their goods, and most of them are still cautious in purchasing. Traders are reluctant to sell, waiting for higher prices.

[operation suggestion]

The recent volatility of the market has increased. The focus of European debt has been on investor sentiment and concerns about the euro summit. Due to the uncertainty of the meeting, investors are advised to reduce their positions. The recent rebound is fiercer and investors need to withdraw cautiously. Shorter and more passive at 56,000. We think that the space under 50,000 is not large, but there is no sign of relaxation in domestic currency and the room for growth is also limited.