Domestic electric vehicles are not perfect, but the development trend is irreversible

A few days ago, a saying that "electric cars are garbage" was rumored in the WeChat circle of friends. Although most people in the industry have laughed at their opinions, the high cost of electric vehicles, unsatisfactory driving performance and safety performance, inconvenient charging, mileage anxiety, battery attenuation, etc., do exist. So, is electric car really "garbage"? China's electric vehicle is the mainstream technology route for new energy vehicles, and it has given huge financial subsidies. Is this the right way to go?

The biggest advantage of electric vehicles is to lead the development direction of low carbonization, informationization and intelligence.

"The acceleration of 100 kilometers is only 2.9 seconds. The excitement of adrenaline rush can be compared with that of a super sports car..." The feeling of driving the Tesla Model S P90D, Mr. Li seems to have endless words. In his view, the torque curve of the motor is better than any internal combustion engine, which makes the push back and the light and comfortable acceleration performance fascinating.

Also fascinated by electric cars are the large number of "Dia powder" of the BYD Tang Che Youhui. As the first model in BYD's "542" strategy, Tang's 100-kilometer acceleration within 5 seconds, equipped with a full-time electric four-wheel drive, fuel consumption of less than 2 liters per 100 kilometers. According to BYD's plan, in the future, it will launch a model with a speed of 3.9 seconds or even 2.9 seconds.

In the eyes of Vice Minister of Science and Technology Yin and Jun, the biggest advantage of electric vehicles is to lead the development of the future automobile industry with low carbonization, information and intelligence. “Electric vehicles have better energy and environmental benefits than traditional vehicles throughout their life cycle.” Yin and Jun said that electric vehicles can drive the scale of lightweight materials due to the cost increase that can be balanced by lightweight materials. In addition, as the best platform for intelligence, electric vehicles will greatly change the future travel mode of human beings.

“Economist Jeremy Rifkin believes that the combination of renewable energy and Internet technology will lead to the third industrial revolution. Electric vehicles and the Internet, smart grids, and charging infrastructure networks can be integrated to build vehicle network synergies. The transportation energy information system.” Any of the directors of the Policy Research Office of the Energy Internet Innovation Institute of Tsinghua University explained that electric vehicles are used as terminals for distributed energy storage, and energy feedback is based on vehicle usage to improve the stability of the power grid and promote wind power. The large-scale access of solar power to the power grid is conducive to the integration of smart grids and renewable energy.

For this reason, starting from the response to energy structure adjustment, environmental protection, and nurturing future technological competitive advantages, major developed countries have raised new energy vehicles to national strategic heights, and introduced many strong measures at the technical and market levels. Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Department of Economic Construction of the Ministry of Finance, said that since the beginning of this year, the support of various countries has further increased. The US government has raised a loan guarantee of 4.5 billion US dollars to promote the popularization of charging infrastructure and invest in the development of high-energy-density power batteries. The Japanese government has further clarified that by 2020, the sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 1 million. The German government and industry began to study China, providing a total of 1.2 billion euros in subsidies for new energy vehicles.

Electric vehicles have also become the focus of competition among multinational auto companies. Recently, Volkswagen Group CEO Mulun said that in the next 10 years, more than 30 pure electric vehicles will be launched. In 2025, the sales of pure electric vehicles will be between 2 million and 3 million, accounting for 20% of their total sales. 25%. The Daimler Group has also been released recently to launch at least six electric vehicles between 2018 and 2024. Renault Nissan Group hopes to sell 1.5 million electric vehicles in 2020.

Domestic electric vehicles are not perfect, but the development trend is irreversible

“The manufacturer has marked a mileage of 253 kilometers, and I have the longest drive to 270 kilometers.” I mentioned the Geely Dorsett EV that I just bought, and the old man who lives in Yanjiao, Hebei, is full of praise. Because it is very convenient to charge at home and in the unit, Laohe commutes to and from work more than 60 kilometers a day, there is no mileage anxiety.

I met a Changan Yi EV owner near Chaoyang Park in Beijing. He was also very satisfied with his car. "In April this year, the car was subsidized, and the subsidy was less than 150,000 yuan. It was opened more than 50 kilometers a day, charging three times a week. There is no difference in the gasoline car."

The owner of a Qichen Chenfeng electric vehicle in the underground parking garage of a certain community in Beijing is not so lucky. Since the fire prevention code for the underground parking garage currently implemented in China is only for internal combustion engine vehicles, the residential property is not allowed to install charging piles. He can only go to the Huatong Center public charging pile for charging on weekends. "Fortunately, the distance to work is close, and it takes only one week to charge a single charge." He said, "The trouble is trouble, but it is better than no car!"

Mr. Zhang, who works in government agencies, has recently been hesitant to choose which electric car to choose. "There are not many models available. I have seen too many complaints from the owners on the Internet. I want to wait and see if there are any new models with high cost performance and good security."

"Undoubtedly, under the joint efforts of the central and local governments and the joint efforts of industry, academia and research, China's electric vehicle development has made important progress." Li Dong, director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, believes that production and sales have remained The rapid growth momentum; second, the vehicle, battery, motor and other key raw materials are basically localized, some products are exported in batches, forming a new energy automobile industry chain with independent safety and control, and a relatively complete system; third, the technical level is significantly improved, consumption The range of choices is gradually expanded, and the performance of vehicles is greatly improved. Fourthly, the synergistic development of production, learning, research and use, and the model innovation of joint research and development are emerging.

However, the 2015 National Automotive Industry User Satisfaction Measurement (CACSI) showed that China's new energy vehicle user satisfaction score was only 65 points, 14 points lower than traditional fuel vehicles. The focus of user dissatisfaction includes short battery life, long charging time, trouble, poor body assembly quality, rough interior work, abnormal noise, etc., and the complaint rate is 2.4 times that of fuel vehicles.

“It should be acknowledged that the current electric technology is still relatively low in cost performance compared with the almost perfect fuel vehicle. If there are no further breakthroughs in some important core technologies, electric vehicles will always be threatened halfway.” Chinese electric vehicles Chen Qingtai, chairman of the meeting, said that last year, new energy vehicles exceeded 1.5% of automobile production and sales in that year. Electric technology was gradually accepted by consumers and received positive response from most pilot cities. However, “in general, this is still a policy-driven market, and its unsustainability has begun to emerge.”

Chen Qingtai’s unsustainability means that from this year on, the state subsidy policy will begin to decline and will gradually withdraw from 2020. Despite this, Ouyang Minggao, executive vice president of China Electric Vehicles 100, believes that the development trend of electric vehicles in China has become irreversible.

Data show that from 2009 to 2015, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has rapidly increased from less than 10,000 vehicles to more than 330,000 vehicles, making it the world's largest new energy vehicle market. From January to July 2016, the cumulative production and sales volume of new energy vehicles nationwide exceeded 200,000 units, a year-on-year increase. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 162,000 and 153,000, respectively, an increase of 156.4% and 160.9%.

Should raise the threshold of financial subsidies, policy guidance should not be less

At the beginning of this year, the exposure of the car companies’ “cheat” news has pushed the current new energy vehicle subsidy policy to the forefront. Along with the transition period of China's electric vehicles from the industrial development to the growth period, the development momentum of electric vehicles has entered a transition period from policy-driven to innovative policy. How to adjust subsidy policies in a timely manner has become the focus of attention outside the industry.

Zhang Zhiyong, a senior commentator in the automotive industry, believes that the original intention of financial subsidies is to solve the problem of high cost in the initial stage of new energy vehicle industrialization. As the market gradually enlarges, the cost of the core components of the power battery has been greatly reduced, and the financial subsidy has even become a source of profit for individual production enterprises. The threshold for financial subsidies should be greatly increased and the subsidy policy should be withdrawn.

Song Qiuling pointed out that the practice has proved that the fiscal universal policy is effective for cultivating the primary market of new energy vehicles. However, if the policy is implemented for a long time, enterprises are prone to policy dependence, “chondrosis”, lack of technology development and product upgrading. Power and pressure, the industry is prone to low levels of blind expansion.

"Industry development has entered a new stage, and it still needs to play a guiding role in fiscal policy." Song Qiuling also pointed out that China's core technologies in key components such as power batteries are still relatively backward, and the constraints of the consumer environment are not yet fully resolved. New energy vehicles It is still difficult for the industry to rely entirely on the market to grow and develop. In particular, the current industrial competition is intensifying, and it is necessary to continue to maintain industrial advantages. The financial subsidy policy is still indispensable.

It is reported that, in addition to adjusting the financial subsidy policy on the basis of improving the technical threshold, improving the subsidy standard, and improving the supervision system, in order to ensure that the financial subsidy policy is withdrawn, the support for new energy vehicles will not be reduced, and the relevant departments are planning to introduce carbon emissions trading. And other measures, with the help of market forces to encourage and force companies to invest more resources in product development and innovation.

“Although there are still gaps in the technological advancement, reliability, comfort and handling of Chinese brand electric vehicles, especially in the aspects of power batteries, core components, electronic control technology, lightweight, intelligent, etc., there are still many technical bottlenecks. However, China's electric vehicles still face an important window of opportunity. Chen Qingtai believes that China has relatively advanced electric vehicles to the national strategy, has a good accumulation, and has the world's largest auto market to support. At present, electric vehicles have great room for innovation in all aspects of the industrial chain, which provides a rare historical opportunity for China to establish independent intellectual property rights and cultivate independent brands in the electric vehicle industry.

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