1Q11 The whole society uses YoY+12% electricity, and electricity demand starts to pick up. In March, the electricity consumption in the society was YoY+13.41% and MoM+24%. The cumulative electricity use of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd industries and residential electricity in 1Q11 increased by 2.6%, 12.4%, 14.3% and 13.9% respectively year-on-year. In March, light industry increased electricity consumption by 26.5% year-on-year, driving a strong rebound in industrial electricity consumption. Taking into account the gradual recovery of electricity demand, it is expected that electricity demand in April 2011 will increase by 13% year-on-year.
The average utilization hour of 1Q11 YoY+0.1%; the newly installed YoY-14.5%. The average utilization hours of thermal power and hydropower increased by 5 hours and 84 hours year-on-year respectively; the installed capacity of the nation's power supply increased YoY-14.5%, and the growth rate of new installed capacity continued to decline. Considering that the growth rate of new installed capacity in 2010 has been lower than the growth in demand for electricity, after five years of declining power generation hours, the number of thermal power utilization hours in 2010 will be the first upward trend, and at least 2-3 years will continue to appear in the future. Pick up.
The demand for coal is not thin in the off-season and prices have rebounded. In terms of contract coal, the Development and Reform Commission issued a document to stabilize the coal price in April and the contract coal price remained unchanged. In terms of market coal, the Datong-Qinhuangdao line inspection and the recovery of electricity demand caused coal prices in coal pits in Shanxi's major coal production areas to increase significantly, and the Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal price remained stable. Slightly up slightly. This trend is expected to continue until May, but the gains are weaker than in 2008.
The power industry's economy started to improve, and the price increase is expected to be strong. The sustained losses of thermal power companies lead to high asset-liability ratios, and power investment investment declines. With the suspension of approval of nuclear power, the slowdown in construction will intensify the situation of power shortage. In 1Q11, power shortages have already occurred in some areas, and the power industry is in a better mood. With tight electricity and high coal prices, the price of electricity will be forced to increase. It is hoped that priority will be given to increasing the on-grid tariff in areas with more severe losses.
Evaluation and Investment Suggestions: From the perspective of replacement cost, the market value per kilowatt of major thermal power companies has fallen below the replacement cost; from the perspective of the market rate, the electricity valuation is only equivalent to the low point of the industry in 2008, and the power sector is at the bottom of the boom. In the period of accumulation of positive factors and shocks, the industry rating was raised to “positiveâ€. The profitability of hydropower is in good condition. It is recommended to pay attention to the Yangtze Power, and the price increase is expected to be strong. We are concerned about Huadian Power International and Huaneng Power, which are relatively flexible.
The average utilization hour of 1Q11 YoY+0.1%; the newly installed YoY-14.5%. The average utilization hours of thermal power and hydropower increased by 5 hours and 84 hours year-on-year respectively; the installed capacity of the nation's power supply increased YoY-14.5%, and the growth rate of new installed capacity continued to decline. Considering that the growth rate of new installed capacity in 2010 has been lower than the growth in demand for electricity, after five years of declining power generation hours, the number of thermal power utilization hours in 2010 will be the first upward trend, and at least 2-3 years will continue to appear in the future. Pick up.
The demand for coal is not thin in the off-season and prices have rebounded. In terms of contract coal, the Development and Reform Commission issued a document to stabilize the coal price in April and the contract coal price remained unchanged. In terms of market coal, the Datong-Qinhuangdao line inspection and the recovery of electricity demand caused coal prices in coal pits in Shanxi's major coal production areas to increase significantly, and the Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal price remained stable. Slightly up slightly. This trend is expected to continue until May, but the gains are weaker than in 2008.
The power industry's economy started to improve, and the price increase is expected to be strong. The sustained losses of thermal power companies lead to high asset-liability ratios, and power investment investment declines. With the suspension of approval of nuclear power, the slowdown in construction will intensify the situation of power shortage. In 1Q11, power shortages have already occurred in some areas, and the power industry is in a better mood. With tight electricity and high coal prices, the price of electricity will be forced to increase. It is hoped that priority will be given to increasing the on-grid tariff in areas with more severe losses.
Evaluation and Investment Suggestions: From the perspective of replacement cost, the market value per kilowatt of major thermal power companies has fallen below the replacement cost; from the perspective of the market rate, the electricity valuation is only equivalent to the low point of the industry in 2008, and the power sector is at the bottom of the boom. In the period of accumulation of positive factors and shocks, the industry rating was raised to “positiveâ€. The profitability of hydropower is in good condition. It is recommended to pay attention to the Yangtze Power, and the price increase is expected to be strong. We are concerned about Huadian Power International and Huaneng Power, which are relatively flexible.
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