On the closing day of the 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos, a focus forum focusing on artificial intelligence was brought to the attention. Li Kaifu, chairman of the Innovation Workshop in China, and Mr. Ito, the head of the Media Lab of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, were the guests. The possibility of artificial intelligence and the influence of various aspects of society are discussed.
This is the first time that artificial intelligence has come to the Voss Economic Forum, and during the entire conference, artificial intelligence is one of the topics that all participants can't avoid – throughout 2016, no more exciting than artificial intelligence. Impressive technology has progressed.
Therefore, as an expert in the field of artificial intelligence, Kai-Fu Lee and Ito Yu talk about the possible impact of artificial intelligence on the global economy and society, and the current human needs to prepare for these effects.
How long is the arrival of the era of artificial intelligence? Will artificial intelligence cause widespread unemployment for human beings? What other jobs have been replaced? How should humans respond to education, employment and ability training?
In response to the above questions, Li Kaifu and Ito Yuichi have the following views:
Dr. Kai-Fu Lee, Chairman and CEO of Innovation Works, Dean of Innovation Workshop Artificial Intelligence Engineering Institute
Joi Ito, head of the MIT Media Lab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology Media Lab), former CEO of CreaTIve Commons, chairman of Six Apart Japan, founder and CEO of venture capital firm Neoteny
Moderator: Tim Bradshaw, Financial Times reporter in San Francisco
Moderator Tim: This year I came to Voss for the first time to participate in the World Economic Forum. I feel that artificial intelligence (ArTIficial Intelligence, hereinafter referred to as AI) has become a hot spot in this year's conference. Now when people talk about AI and the productivity gains it brings, they often talk about the ethical and political issues that AI may raise, or even argue about the ultimate value of AI. I hope that today we can change the point of view to discuss AI.
Ito: I think AI has become a hot spot. This change started from the end of last year. 2016 is a very important year. Even many non-computer scientists have begun to put forward their views, instead of simply questioning AI in the past.
Kai-fu Lee: Indeed, AI has now been more widely accepted by the whole society. People are beginning to realize that AI is serving real life. Since the beginning of 2016, AlphaGo defeated Li Shishi, revealing an undeniable fact for the public that AI can really grasp a specific vertical field with high efficiency. AI can provide many solutions to our lives that go beyond current product and service levels, and AI can begin to officially serve people.
Tim: So, do you think the driving force for this change comes from the technical field or the external physical environment?
Kai-fu Lee: I think it is a technology-led change. For decades, AI has been widely regarded as a technology. Indeed, while the development of AI has changed, the external environment of economy and politics has changed. However, I don’t think that the change of the physical environment is directly related to the development of AI technology. Sex.
Tim: Not long ago, both IBM and Microsoft were involved in a major discussion. Is AI technology a threat to people's existing work, and will people be unemployed? They believe that the purpose of AI is to enhance human intelligence. Instead of replacing humans. Do the two think that the above argument is true?
Ito: The value of everything needs to be tested for a long time, not for a short period of time. From a macro perspective, we can't deny that people will panic because "new technologies will always lead to unemployment," but with the development of new technologies, new jobs will be born in certain areas. For example, in the United States, high school graduates who want to be nurses must take a community college exam license, and AI technology can meet the operational process skills that nurses must learn, making time-consuming and expensive professional qualification exams less important. The profession of nurses will still exist, but it will no longer be limited by cumbersome operational tasks and process affairs. This is a big benefit for those who want to be a nurse. For many professions, it is still too early to say that it is immediately replaced by AI technology. But obviously, the problems in many areas of work are being solved and are being changed.
The major technology giants who are leading the development of AI technology will be a big plus if they can establish a correct attitude for people and dispel the fear of AI technology in people's minds. After all, most of the fear of AI technology comes from the incomprehensibility of AI.
To eliminate fear, we need to work hard in two ways. One is to eliminate the emotional and irrational panic in people's minds; the other is to solve problems rationally. For example, we must reform the current education system, as well as the system of professional qualifications, depending on how fast the machine will develop in the future.
AI technology will continue to evolve over the next few decades or even a long time. But the reality is that our education system and talent market are still the same. I foresee the rigidity and lack of flexibility of the existing systems, which will become a greater obstacle than the AI ​​technology itself.
Kai-fu Lee: I agree in general, but I think we need to more eagerly awaken the collective consciousness of society to understand and prepare for the arrival of the AI ​​era.
The speed of change in the modern era is faster than any previous industrial revolution. With the continuous improvement of AI technology, more and more work is now being replaced by AI technology. For example, a group of AI startups in China are studying face recognition. This type of technology has been able to identify 200,000 to 300,000 faces in batches. This is an order of magnitude and precision that is impossible for humans to achieve, such as security, border defense, etc. Practitioners engaged in identification tasks are bound to be replaced. In other areas, AI's ability to handle interpersonal and human-machine relationships is not as good as that of humans. The medical industry is the best example. Some of the positions in medical testing involving image recognition will soon be replaced by AI technology, but that It's just a small part of the medical profession.
So in general, people's work must be deep enough to be strong enough not to be easily shaken by machines. I don't think that people who are working in this kind of work with enough depth will be easily replaced by AI.
There are currently two major tasks waiting for us to resolve. The first is to think about how to deploy a large number of workers who have been replaced by AI technology in the next 20 years. Second, our education needs to be reformed. We need to re-educate our children, the children of the next generation, and analyze which jobs are not easily replaced, not just to fantasize about the seemingly glamorous work.
Joining the service industry may be one of the options. We hope to encourage more people to participate in interpersonal interactions and establish a communication model between robots and humans. Not everyone can do this, and these are crucial for the service industry. AI technology can make the future The service industry is more expected and respected.
Ito: Japanese people are very interesting about the service industry. The Japanese believe that the service industry is a job of dealing with people. In Japan, few people bring Hollywood dreams. In order to become a star in the future, they work in restaurants. They simply like to work in restaurants and love their customers. This attitude completely refreshes my personal understanding of the value of work.
It is necessary for us to reset the evaluation system of value. When I was in Japan in the past, Japan was still a country with a top economic development. But now, people's ideas have changed a lot. In the past, work was just to get money, and money was the measure of a person's success.
But if you rate your work based on your proficiency in work skills and measure your love for work, then many of the careers that are attributed to the service industry are quite successful, and the service itself may be I can't talk about greatness, and I don't create anything new, but these current jobs make you clear goals, support your life structure, and let you find the meaning of life.
We should pay less attention to the economic benefits of work output and pay more attention to the goals and significance of work. For example, parenting should be an integral part of the country’s GDP, rather than being considered as household chores as it is now. Raising the next generation is vital to society as a whole, and if every parent can spend more time in the field of childcare, Society will be better. When we compare the labor output of people and machines, we only use human labor value and working hours to measure human productivity, but we ignore the potential social value behind work. This is why many non-computer scientists have begun to present their views since last year.
Kai-fu Lee: Another key point is that human work has entered a new level. In the competition, people will choose better employers and jobs, and at the same time gain work skills and depth improvement, gradually become a variety of professional and top talents, and even eventually become the chief scientist in the specific field, the most valuable gold medal player, The most popular star chefs are sought after by hackers.
But the machine also has a new positioning that belongs to it. What we need to do is to think about how to retain the experience of the first hand when the AI ​​era comes, how to provide space for human growth, thereby creating more employment opportunities and finding better solutions for the common future of mankind.
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