[The photovoltaic market ushered in the year of consolidation to exceed the demand and promote the industry to accelerate the reshuffle] The annual SNEC International Exhibition on Solar PV and Smart Energy (Shanghai) officially opened to the public on the 28th. Although the scene is still crowded with people and exhibitors are gathered, some people's faces are clouded. Some people even lamented to reporters: "A lot of companies here may not see it next year."
The consensus of a number of people in the industry is that the new round of industry reshuffling is already coming and going, and the elimination of backward production capacity is on the horizon, but industry trends will not change. Shi Dingyao, former chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society and a counselor of the State Council, revealed during an exclusive interview with reporters from the Shanghai Daily that a few areas in China had even achieved parity Internet access.
Overcapacity accelerates industry reshuffle
"The industry crisis caused by excess capacity has begun to break out. It is manifested that many component companies do not make any profit this year." Li Gang, general manager of Jiangsu Seraph PV System Co., Ltd., who has become a first-tier component manufacturer, told Shanghai Daily yesterday. Due to the adjustment of the national policy, this year's domestic PV installation capacity will be 20% less than last year, which means that there is no local consumption of about 10 GW of production capacity. With the increasingly fierce competition in the industry, the collapse of a large number of companies is not impossible. "After shuffling, the industry will enter a new round of steady development."
Gao Jifan, chairman of Trina Solar, said in an interview with reporters that the oversupply of the industry this year will surely happen. Under such circumstances, there will inevitably be a round of consolidation and adjustment, which will bring about crowding out of the industry. Some capacity that is not competitive and does not meet the future development trend will be eliminated. “The photovoltaic industry will eventually form several giants.†Gao Jifan believes that the gross margin level of the manufacturing end of this year will decline, but the situation of different companies is not the same. As the Chinese market gradually faces a “ceilingâ€, enterprises with a global layout will have more advantages.
Shu Huan, chairman of GCL, said that the photovoltaic industry has the universal characteristics of emerging industries, that is, market demand growth has far exceeded traditional industries. Photovoltaic overcapacity is a “stage excessâ€, and each surplus is a market baptism for the survival of the fittest and will be resolved by the rapidly increasing demand in a short period of time. Every time, it will also promote the development of superior enterprises and promote the rapid progress of scientific and technological innovation. The ultimate result will be a significant reduction in the cost of power generation.
"According to the excess capacity of photovoltaics, through the industry's automatic elimination and technological advancement, we will promote newer generations of technology and newer generations of products in the elimination process, and take up more market share," Shu Hua said.
Some areas have been cheap Internet access
Shi Dingyao, who has been involved in the formulation of industry policies for many of the aforementioned overcapacity issues, believes that it actually includes two aspects: First, advanced production capacity in the industry will certainly eliminate backward production capacity; second, there will still be strong demand in the global market, including South America, African markets, etc., can provide a way out for excess capacity.
Shi Dingxi told reporters that as the market is getting bigger and the prices are getting lower and lower, some localities do not need subsidies, which means that they can achieve parity online. “From the latest bid price for the Qinghai frontrunner base, the minimum bid price was only 0.31 yuan/kWh, and parity has already been achieved. It is expected that it will not take too long for other places to achieve parity.â€
Andreas Liebheit, president of Heraeus Photovoltaic, the world's largest supplier of photovoltaic conductive silver paste, said in an interview with reporters yesterday that the industry cannot maintain an annual growth of 30%. This year, it will not be as popular as last year, but still There will be about 10% growth. In general, the industry will still maintain an average annual increase of 20%.
"As far as the national markets are concerned, China's demand has now stabilized, the US market will decline, demand in Europe, especially Southern Europe, will recover, and the Indian and Latin American markets will continue to experience strong growth. This is why the demand growth of the PV market will still increase this year. 10%," Li Haide said.
In his view, overcapacity caused by expansion in recent years does exist, and the entire industry does have some financial pressure. However, at present, some large companies have already established a foothold, and some small businesses will be absorbed by large companies. Although the decline in the price of photovoltaic products will lead to a decrease in gross profit margin, the price reduction will also promote the increase in shipments and share. In general, market growth may slow, but it will never enter the depression cycle.
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