[PConline News] A year-and-a-half-long surge in memory chip prices has hit DIY enthusiasts hard. Memory prices have tripled, and the cost of installing two memory modules is now at least 800 to 1,000 yuan higher than it was a year ago. The overall market has seen price hikes, with only upstream manufacturers and distributors benefiting—consumers are the ones losing out. As 2017 draws to a close, what will happen to DRAM and NAND flash memory prices in 2018? It's unclear whether this news is good or bad. Even for standalone systems, there won't be any price reductions for DRAM memory chips in the first quarter of next year. South Korean manufacturers Samsung and Hynix are sticking to their price increase strategies, with contract prices expected to rise by at least 5% in Q1. However, the SSD market might see some changes, as increased production capacity could lead to lower prices.
Samsung 8GB DDR4 2133 ECC REG supplier price is being read...
According to sources from Jibang Technology, outsiders initially expected DRAM manufacturers to lower prices in Q1 next year. After all, Q1 is traditionally a slow season, with lower demand and typical price adjustments. However, Samsung and Hynix have already decided against cutting prices. It seems that Samsung’s DRAM chip contract prices may rise by 3-5% next year. SK Hynix (Hynix) has followed suit, announcing a 5% price increase. Their reasoning is that DRAM chips are still in short supply.
If DRAM prices continue to rise at the start of next year, it will break the record of Q1 seasonal price cuts. This would mark the seventh consecutive quarter of rising DRAM prices. Based on this trend, it’s unlikely that prices will drop in Q2 next year. That means the current wave of price increases could last for two years.
Samsung and Hynix are the world’s top two DRAM suppliers, holding at least 45% and 29% of the market, respectively. US-based Micron holds around 20%, while several Taiwanese companies make up the remaining 5%. Although there are multiple manufacturers, the three largest players—Samsung, Hynix, and Micron—are the key influencers of price trends. South Korean manufacturers, in particular, hold significant power. With them refusing to cut prices, and Micron also unlikely to follow suit, it's almost certain that prices will remain high.
Memory prices aren’t going down anytime soon. Fortunately, the SSD market might offer some relief. Market demand for computers, laptops, smartphones, and tablets is expected to drop by about 15% in Q1 next year. Server demand remains relatively stable, though it could see a slight decline of 0–5%. NAND flash demand is also falling. However, production capacity for NAND flash is increasing. In 2016, major manufacturers achieved stable yields for 64-layer and higher 3D NAND flash, with production capacity growing by at least 5%.
As NAND flash moves from a shortage to an oversupply situation, prices are expected to fall in Q1. This will likely lead to lower SSD prices, which is great news for consumers.
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