[PConline News] The prolonged surge in memory chip prices over the past 18 months has been a tough pill for DIY enthusiasts to swallow. Prices have tripled, and the cost of installing two memory modules now costs at least 800 to 1,000 yuan more than it did a year ago. Not only have prices doubled, but the entire market has benefited—except for consumers. As 2017 comes to an end, what can we expect from memory and flash storage prices in 2018? The outlook isn't clear yet, as even standalone machines in Q1 next year are unlikely to see price reductions for DRAM chips. Major manufacturers like Samsung and Hynix are sticking to their pricing strategies, with contract prices expected to rise by at least 5% in the first quarter. However, the SSD market might experience some changes, as increased production capacity could lead to lower prices.
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According to reports from Jibang Technology, many had anticipated that DRAM manufacturers would lower prices in Q1 next year. After all, it's traditionally a slow season, and price adjustments are normal. But Samsung and Hynix have already signaled that they won't be cutting prices. In fact, Samsung’s DRAM contract prices are expected to rise by 3–5% next year, while SK Hynix has also announced a 5% increase. Their reasoning is that DRAM supply remains tight, and there's still a shortage in the market.
If DRAM prices continue to climb at the start of next year, it will break the tradition of Q1 price cuts, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of rising prices. Based on this trend, it’s unlikely that prices will drop in Q2 next year. This means that the current wave of high memory prices may last for another two years.
Samsung and Hynix are the world’s top two DRAM suppliers, controlling at least 45% and 29% of the market respectively. Micron, based in the US, holds around 20%, with the remaining 5% coming from several Taiwanese manufacturers. While the market is fragmented, the top three companies largely dictate the price direction. South Korean manufacturers, in particular, hold significant influence. If they don’t cut prices, Micron is unlikely to do so either, meaning the rest of the industry will likely follow suit.
Memory prices aren’t going down anytime soon. Fortunately, the SSD market may offer some relief. Demand for computers, laptops, smartphones, and tablets is expected to drop by about 15% in Q1 next year. Server demand remains relatively stable, though it could also see a slight decline of 0–5%. NAND flash demand is also decreasing, but production capacity is increasing. In 2016, major manufacturers achieved stable yields on 64-layer and above 3D NAND flash, with production capacity growing by at least 5%.
As NAND flash moves from a shortage to an oversupply situation, prices are expected to fall in Q1. This should lead to lower SSD prices, which is good news for consumers looking to upgrade their storage without breaking the bank.
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